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Client Projects

Research Fox LLC has worked with leading institutional investors, hedge funds, corporations, investment advisors, and academic institutions on a wide variety of projects. Below is a representative sample of company, industry, and macroeconomic projects.

Company Related
Best Buy Sensitivity Analysis Estimated earnings and valuation in several scenarios, used industry contacts to handicap the likelihood of each scenario, and identified attractive entry points to buy the increasingly out-of-favor stock. Used the results to make a recommendation on the stock.
Toys ‘R Us Due Diligence Leveraged experience covering the company for many years prior to its going private to conduct field research. Used the results to evaluate changes in its competitive position and the sustainability of its turnaround in anticipation of the company coming public again.
Wal-Mart Impact on Consumer Staples Calculated the EPS impact of a 10% SKU reduction at Wal-Mart on a portfolio of branded packaged goods companies. Ranked them from most to least sensitive.
Transition to Digital in Book Retailing Estimated the sales and earnings impact to Barnes & Noble and Borders from a partial migration of bookstore customers to digital devices. Used the results to evaluate the sustainability of their business models and fair value of the stocks.

Industry Related
LBO Candidates in Retail Built a proprietary LBO model to calculate IRR and conduct sensitivity analysis on a group of retail companies. Developed a framework for evaluating qualitative and quantitative factors that would influence the feasibility and attractiveness of a transaction. Used the results to rank potential LBO candidates from most to least attractive.
Idea Generation for Consumer Growth Stocks Screened all consumer IPOs over the past five years to identify attractive growth stories at reasonable valuations. Used the results to home in on the stocks with the greatest return potential.
Retail Saturation Calculated how saturated the U.S. market is overall and in over a dozen sub-sectors using a combination of government and company data. Evaluated changes over time and ranked retail sub-sectors according to remaining expansion potential. Used the results to assess the growth prospects for retailers.
Private Label Impact on Consumer Staples Identified the product categories most likely to experience a trade down to private label and then quantified the EPS impact on 20 global CPG companies. Used the results to rank order the companies from most to least earnings risk and generate short ideas.
Commodity Price Analysis Quantified the EPS impact from a 10% commodity price change on a basket of food and personal care companies. Tapped industry contacts for insight on strategic considerations and to reality check assumptions. Ranked companies from biggest to smallest EPS impact to identify short and long ideas.

Macroeconomic
Housing Demographics Estimated long-term housing demand using Census Bureau data on the characteristics of the U.S. population. Used the results to forecast housing shortages and gluts, as well as peaks and troughs.
Housing Affordability Quantified how changes in net equity gains for homes bought and sold affects housing affordability. Used the results to help predict the pace of housing turnover and home improvement demand.
Housing Demand Researched the impact on housing turnover from the availability of sub-prime and alt-A mortgages. Used the results to measure how much current housing demand was inflated or depressed compared to normalized levels and make a decision about whether to buy or sell home improvement retail stocks.
Oil Prices Assessed the potential impact from changes in oil prices on overall consumer spending. Used the results to develop a checklist of what to track and when to worry, as well as a methodology for quantifying the impact on retail sales.
Stimulus Impact Analyzed the impact of government stimulus programs on consumer spending. Estimated which segments of the U.S. population benefited, and by how much, from each of the three types programs. Used the results to identify which retailers experienced the biggest temporary lift to sales.
Auto and Auto Parts Demand Normalized U.S. auto SAAR for changes in credit availability and scrappage rates. Used the results to decide if and when to buy or sell publicly traded auto dealerships and auto parts retailers.